The Spring of Reckoning: How International Economic Organizations Change Their Vision of the Future of the Global Economy

Abstract

In 2024, a series of reports from international and private research organizations provided a cautious, sober analysis of the situation in the global economy. Difficult economic growth of 2011–2019 was followed by the turmoil of 2020–2023. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts, the world economy has entered a stage of nervous recovery. The current situation should be viewed as a change in the regime of global social and economic development. Almost all major actors—from the head of the IMF to the Pope—see certain serious threats in world processes. Positive GDP dynamics have recovered, but at a level lower than at the beginning of the 21st century. China is driving global growth momentum.

The current picture of the world is as follows: emerging economies are lagging behind more developed countries in terms of economic growth, with no hint of convergence; the EU economy is essentially stagnating with the risks of further deterioration of economic prospects; while only the US has almost returned to traditional growth rates. Sluggish global growth is accompanied with wide variations in the dynamics of key actors. With low income growth, the resources at the disposal of governments have narrowed, especially in relation to the increasingly complex flow of challenges. The cyclical recovery looks weak, and its drivers for the next 2-3 years (investment in renewables, electric vehicles and artificial intelligence) can give it a certain, but not sufficiently strong, impetus. In general, the world has finally thought about its situation, but it remains unclear what the conclusions and decisions will be.