Влияние шоков 2020–2023 годов на деловой цикл
Аннотация
В работе рассмотрены последствия четырех шоков 2020–2022 годов для мировой экономики с фокусом на циклические процессы. Первый шок – коронавирусные «локдауны» 2020 года – имел внеэкономическое происхождение и прервал фазу подъема, создав панику и кратковременное сжатие ликвидности. Второй шок был произведен в 2020–2021 годах финансовыми властями ведущих стран мира и ЕС (а также МВФ), обеспечившими уникальный по масштабу финансовый стимул для экономики для предотвращения цепной реакции сжатия спроса. Третий шок, связанный с оживлением на товарных рынках в 2021 году, выразился в ускорении инфляции. Его последствием в большой мере стали потрясения в банковском секторе США и ЕС в марте 2023 года. Наконец, шок санкций 2022 года закрепил неопределенность как для процесса накопления в мире в целом, так и для инфляционных тенденций в особенности. Четыре шока ускорили смену фаз делового цикла и поменяли ряд типичных для них характеристик. В результате на начало 2023 года финансовые власти США, ЕС и ряда других стран вынуждены искать баланс между сдерживанием инфляции и предотвращением спадов с помощью очень тонкого регулирования.
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Литература
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