Factor Analysis of the Causes of the Uneven Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Garik Petrosyan; Irina Petrosyan; Heghine Petrosyan

doi:10.17323/2949-5776-2024-2-4-24-42

Garik Petrosyan Russian-Armenian University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4711-7615
Irina Petrosyan Russian-Armenian University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7966-8211
Heghine Petrosyan Russian-Armenian University https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3939-8426

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17323/2949-5776-2024-2-4-24-42

Keywords: COVID-19, economic losses, institutional indicators, healthcare system, macroeconomic stability

Abstract

This study analyzes the uneven economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in different countries and identifies the factors that influence the size of these losses. The study used econometric models to estimate economic losses in 2020 and cumulative losses for 2020–2021. The main groups of factors included macroeconomic indicators, macroeconomic policy measures, institutional indicators, and healthcare system indicators. Also, the estimates used the structure of the economy as a control variable. The results show that traditional monetary instruments did not have a significant impact in mitigating the economic effects of the crisis in 2020, while fiscal measures significantly contributed to the recovery of the economies in 2021. Institutional factors such as the efficiency of public administration and the level of corruption control also played an important role in reducing economic losses. Additionally, the impact of economic structure factors and health system capacity on the magnitude of economic losses due to the pandemic was analyzed. However, not all of the relationships between healthcare system efficiency factors and economic losses were as expected, and the analysis revealed that poor healthcare system efficiency can have significant negative economic consequences.

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Author Biographies

Garik Petrosyan, Russian-Armenian University

Senior Lecturer

Irina Petrosyan, Russian-Armenian University

Head of the Department of Economic Theory and Issues of Transition Period Economies

Heghine Petrosyan, Russian-Armenian University

Senior Lecturer

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