Factor Analysis of the Causes of Uneven Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Abstract
This study analyzes the unevenness of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across countries and identifies factors affecting the size of the losses. Econometric models are used to estimate economic losses in 2020 and cumulative losses for 2020-2021. The main groups of factors included macroeconomic indicators, macroeconomic policy measures, institutional indicators, and indicators reflecting the state of the health care system. The structure of the economy was also used as a control variable in the estimates. The results show that traditional monetary instruments did not have a significant impact on mitigating the economic impact of the crisis in 2020, while fiscal measures contributed significantly to the recovery of economies in 2021. Institutional factors, such as public administration effectiveness and the level of control over corruption, also played an important role in reducing economic losses. The effects of economic structural factors and the capacity of the health care system on the size of economic losses were also analyzed. However, not all relationships between health care performance factors and economic losses were as expected, and the analysis revealed that poor health care system can have significant negative economic consequences.
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References
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