Экономическая конвергенция стран мира в 1992–2022 гг.
Аннотация
В экономической науке всегда остро стоял вопрос об эффекте «наверстывания»: действительно ли развивающиеся страны догоняют технологически развитые, а экономический разрыв между богатыми и бедными странами сокращается в долгосрочной перспективе? Целью данной статьи является проверка гипотезы об экономической конвергенции стран как одной из главных исследовательских проблем в рамках тематики межстранового неравенства. Это исследование направлено также на более полное понимание факторов, определяющих экономическое межстрановое неравенство. В статье предпринимается попытка нахождения эффекта сближения стран, вытекающего из модели экономического роста Р. Солоу, с использованием уравнений Р. Барро для временнóго промежутка с 1992 по 2021/22 г. Выявлено наличие экономической конвергенции, но она слишком медленная для того, чтобы развивающиеся страны стали значимо догонять развитые. Отдельно проанализирована динамика конвергенции по десятилетиям. Выявлено, в частности, что в период с 2002 по 2011 г. конвергенция происходила максимально медленно, а в период с 2012 по 2022 г. — максимально быстро. Экономические шоки 2020–2022 гг. могут подорвать потенциал догоняющего развития многих развивающихся стран, в результате чего дальнейшая конвергенция может замедлиться.
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Литература
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