Transformation of the Ethnic Structure of the US Electorate

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Natalia Petrovskaya – senior researcher at the department of economic research of Georgy Arbatov Institute for US and Canada Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.

SPIN RSCI: 4469-9990

ORCID 0000-0002-5954-0656

ResearcherID: GVR-7125-2022

Scopus AuthorID: 57207889454

For citation: Petrovskaya, N., 2024. Transformation of the Ethnic Structure of the US Electorate. Contemporary World Economy, Vol. 2, No 3.

Keywords: electorate, elections, United States, social inequality, ethnic groups.

Abstract

The article analyzes the changes in the ethnic structure of the US electorate in the 21st century, which have significantly transformed the political landscape of the country. The study identifies major demographic trends, including the increasing share of Hispanic, African American, and Asian populations, and their impact on electoral preferences and election results. The analysis places particular emphasis on the racial-ethnic composition of swing states and its correlation with income levels.

The study notes that Donald Trump won a landslide victory in the 2024 presidential election, including winning all of the swing states. While the Hispanic population as a whole tends to align more closely with the Democratic Party, Trump was able to garner significant support from Hispanic males in 2024. This shift was attributed to Trump’s campaign strategy, which placed significant emphasis on economic issues, including reducing the cost of living, creating employment opportunities, and addressing inflation. The efficacy of Trump’s economic agenda, which included pledges to enhance economic stability and generate employment opportunities, proved to be a pivotal factor in his victory. These campaign promises resonated strongly with working-class voters and those grappling with the challenges of high housing and commodity costs. Furthermore, Trump garnered support from conservative African American and Hispanic voters, who align with his stance on traditional family values, religious issues, and immigration policy. This diverse coalition, comprising both the established Republican base and new voter demographics, proved instrumental in his electoral success.

The author employs analytical, historical, and comparative methodologies to assess the dynamics of political activity among diverse ethnic groups. The article underscores the importance of incorporating ethnic diversity into electoral strategies and its potential impact on shaping the future of the US political landscape. The article’s conclusions underscore the imperative to adapt conventional political approaches to the evolving demographic landscape and the shifting preferences of the electorate.

Introduction

The world today is characterized by an accelerated pace of change that affects all aspects of society, including its demographic and social structure. A significant example of this influence is the change in the ethnic composition of the US population, especially the wave of immigration from Latin America. In the 21st century, the transformation of the ethnic structure of the US electorate has become a particularly relevant issue, as it is directly related to the political, economic, and social life of the country. The subject of ethnic changes in the United States is not a novel one; however, its pertinence is increasing annually as immigration, birth, and death rates among diverse ethnic groups rise.

The objective of this article is to undertake a comprehensive analysis and comprehension of the processes that are unfolding within the ethnic composition of the US electorate in the 21st century.

US population structure

The population structure of the United States is a complex phenomenon shaped by many factors, including natural increase, migration, and death. As of August 2024, the US population stood at approximately 337 million. The population is in a state of constant flux, with a birth occurring every eight seconds and a death every 11 seconds, and an international migrant arriving every 28 seconds [US Census Bureau 2024c]. The birth rate stands at 1.6 children per woman, exhibiting a downward trend. Concurrently, the mortality rate remains stable, yet the aging population is increasing the proportion of elderly individuals. Concurrently, the proportion of the population that is able-bodied is decreasing.

Immigration has been and continues to be one of the most significant factors affecting the population structure of the United States. A large percentage of the population consists of immigrants or their descendants. The United States welcomes a substantial number of new migrants annually, contributing to the evolution of its racial and ethnic composition. European descendants, the White population, have established the foundations of modern American society and have served as the primary driving force in the nation’s civilizational and cultural development for over two centuries. According to official projections, as early as 2050, the White population will become the largest minority group, “with all the consequences for the cultural and political code of America, for the political system, and for the economic situation of White Americans” [Travkina 2018] (see Figure 1).

The demographic shifts in the United States carry profound cultural and political ramifications. The transition of a society in which Whites will no longer be the majority is expected to result in shifts in the political system, changing social contexts and economic dynamics. White Americans, who have historically occupied central positions of power, culture, and economy, will be compelled to adapt to a new reality marked by the increased influence and participation of other ethnic groups. This transformation may result in alterations to the nation’s political trajectory, reallocation of economic priorities, and shifts in cultural identity. As the demographic landscape evolves, the voice of ethnic minorities is poised to assume a more prominent role in shaping economic direction. This transformation may necessitate a recalibration of existing equity policies, a redistribution of resources, and adjustments to the prevailing dynamics within labor and capital markets. These markets will be characterized by the emergence of new actors representing a diverse array of ethnic and cultural groups.

Figure 1. Transformation of the racial and ethnic composition of the US population over 150 years (projected to 2060) (in percent)

Source: [US Census Bureau 2023].

Historically, waves of immigration have resulted in a diverse composition of Europeans, a relatively stable proportion of immigrants of African descent, and a small share of Asians. In the mid-twentieth century, the proportion of non-Hispanic and non-Latino Whites constituted 87.5 percent of the total. The recent migratory patterns from southern regions represent a significant departure from the demographic composition that has been observed since the mid-twentieth century. By the beginning of the 21st century, the proportion of European Whites had already decreased to 69.1%, and in 2010, it further declined to 63.7%. In 2020, the figure further dropped to 57.8%. Concurrently, the Hispanic population has exhibited a consistent upward trajectory, increasing from 50.5 million (16.3% of the US population) in 2010 to 62.1 million (18.7%) in 2020, marking an increase of 23% [US Census Bureau 2021]. The projected future scenario is depicted in Figure 1.

The 2020 census revealed that more than half of children under the age of 18 identified as non-White. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in major metropolitan areas. This phenomenon stands in contrast to the results observed in 2000. In 2000, 29% of children identified as White, whereas in 2020, this proportion decreased to 25%. A similar trend is observed among the adult population. At the beginning of the 21st century, 47% of the population of the 50 largest US cities were White; two decades later, only 39% were White (see Figure 2).

Figure 2. Ethnic diversity of the 50 largest US cities in 2000, 2010, and 2020

Source: [Brookings 2021a].

In recent history, major US cities have functioned as epicenters of social and economic development, exhibiting an increase in racial and ethnic diversity. Historically, urbanized areas have been predominantly populated by White and African American communities, largely due to income inequality (and cost of houses), de facto racial discrimination in housing, and the prevention of African American migration to the suburbs. However, recent decades have witnessed a notable shift in demographic trends. The growth of Latin American, Hispanic American, Asian American, and multiracial populations has become the predominant factor driving the transformation of urban populations. A key aspect of this transformation is the notable increase in ethnic and racial diversity among young people. This phenomenon is concomitant with the emergence of novel challenges for urban educational institutions and family-serving organizations, which will be required to adapt to the multicultural characteristics of the incoming generation of Americans.

According to projections by the US Census Bureau, the non-White population is projected to increase, particularly due to an increase in Hispanic and Asian groups. The projected racial and ethnic profile of the US in 2060 is expected to be as follows: Whites will comprise less than 45%, Hispanics 27%, African Americans 15%, Asians 9%, and 6% will identify as two or more races [US Census Bureau 2023]. These profound changes in the racial and ethnic composition of US voters will have long-term implications for the country’s political system.

The decline in the proportion of the White population is attributed to lower birth rates within this demographic group and increasing immigration from other ethnic groups. Furthermore, the aging population is another contributing factor to the decline in the White population. Conversely, the Latin American population is experiencing the most rapid growth. This growth can be attributed to both migration patterns and high birth rates. Figure 3 illustrates that over the past decade, the Hispanic and Latino communities have contributed the most to the growth of the US population, with an increase of 11.6 million individuals. Furthermore, individuals identifying as two or more races, as well as Asian Americans, have contributed substantially to the overall population growth.

Figure 3. Population change by race and ethnicity between 2010 and 2020

* non-Latino or Hispanic members of racial group

Source: [Brookings 2021b].

The United States, on average, attracts approximately 1 million legal migrants per year, with more than 40% of these individuals originating from Latin America, approximately 39% from Asia, 11% from Africa, and less than 10% from Europe. Historically, the primary countries of origin at the beginning of the 20th century included Austria-Hungary, Italy, Russia, and the United Kingdom. However, by the end of the 20th century, this landscape underwent a significant transformation, with the Philippines, Mexico, the Caribbean, Central America, and South America emerging as the predominant source regions. While over 90% of migrants originated from European countries at the turn of the 20th century, by the second decade of the 21st century, over 90% were from Asia, Latin America, and Africa [Petrovskaya 2022].

In the 21st century, the proportion of immigrants and their role have not only increased, but also undergone significant transformation in numerous ways. While the foreign-born population constituted 11% of the total in the year 2000, it increased to 13% in 2010. Projections indicate an ongoing intensification of this trend. According to experts at the Center for Immigration Studies, in 2022, the number of migrants reached approximately 47 million, along with more than 17 million children born in the US. This combined figure constitutes 20% of the US population [Center for Immigration Studies 2022].

According to the latest data from the US Census Bureau, the Hispanic population has experienced the most significant population growth, with an increase of over 70% [US Census Bureau 2024b]. In 2023 alone, the US Hispanic population grew by 1.64 million people due to natural increase. Additionally, international migration contributed to this growth, with approximately 440,000 migrants arriving in the US in 2023. Consequently, the Hispanic population has emerged as the second largest ethnic group in the country, as illustrated in Figure 2.

Table 1. Number of newborns in the United States in 2016–2022, thousand people

Years

Total births

White (non-Hispanic)

Hispanics

African Americans

Asian

Of Native descent

Natives of the Pacific Islands and Hawaii

2016

3,945

2,056

918

558

254

31

9

2017

3,855

1,992

898

560

249

29

9

2018

3,791

1,956

886

552

240

29

9

2019

3,747

1,915

886

548

238

28

9

2020

3,613

1,843

866

529

219

26

9

2021

3,664

1,887

885

517

213

26

9

2022

3,667

1,840

937

500

218

25

10

Source: [NVSS].

By 2022, the number of newborns to “Whites” is approaching parity with the sum of newborns to other ethnic groups (see Table 1). With the exception of Hispanics, all racial groups are experiencing a decline in newborns annually. However, some Hispanics may opt to reclassify themselves as “White” in the future, particularly through mixed marriages. A more in-depth examination is necessary to understand how these groups perceive American values and the nation’s social and other challenges, particularly in light of the media’s ongoing discourse on the emergence of “swing” Hispanic groups during elections.

The dynamic growth of the Hispanic population is exerting a substantial influence on the socio-economic landscape of the United States. The group’s high natural increase, in contrast to the declining birth rates observed among other racial groups, signifies its increasing role in shaping the demographic composition of the nation’s future. This phenomenon is poised to exert a substantial influence on various sectors, including education, the labor market, and the consumer sector, as a growing proportion of Hispanic youth becomes an economic catalyst.

It is important to acknowledge the existence of illegal immigration in the United States. According to estimates by the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), the number of individuals involved in this phenomenon is approximately 11 million. The majority of these individuals enter the United States from Latin American countries, particularly Mexico. However, there has been a notable increase in the number of individuals arriving from Central American countries, such as El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, as well as from Asia [MPI 2020]. More than half of undocumented immigrants have lived in the US for more than 14 years. Furthermore, approximately 15% of undocumented immigrants are married to US citizens, while an additional 6% are in committed relationships with individuals who hold lawful permanent residence (LPR). The demographic composition of the United States is further influenced by the presence of children who have at least one undocumented immigrant parent, accounting for 5.2 million individuals under the age of 17, which constitutes 7% of the total US child population of 73.8 million.

As of 2023, the racial demographics of the United States include 195 million Whites, 65 million Hispanics, 42 million African Americans, approximately 21 million Asians, 2.5 million Native Americans, and more than 8 million Americans who identify as two or more races [US Census Bureau 2024b]. Concurrently, the total population and electoral participation of the nation are increasing (see Table 2). The majority of this growth (approximately three-quarters) can be attributed to the children of migrants who reached the age of 18, as well as naturalized migrants. The demographic shift is further accentuated by the notable increase in the Hispanic population, which has contributed significantly to the augmented electoral participation.

Table 2. Number of people registered and voted in presidential elections in 1980–2020, million people

A presidential election year

US population aged 18 and older

US citizens

Total

Registered to vote

Voted in the election

1980

0.157

0.145

0.105

0.093

1984

0.170

0.157

0.116

0.102

1988

0.178

0.165

0.118

0.102

1992

0.186

0.168

0.127

0.114

1996

0.194

0.180

0.128

0.105

2000

0.203

0.186

0.130

0.111

2004

0.216

0.197

0.142

0.126

2008

0.226

0.206

0.146

0.131

2012

0.235

0.215

0.153

0.133

2016

0.246

0.224

0.158

0.138

2020

0.252

0.232

0.168

0.155

Source: [US Census Bureau 2022].

Recent decades have witnessed an absolute increase in the well-being of American workers, but relative inequality has persisted and, in some cases, worsened. Despite economic growth and rising living standards, there has been no significant change in the distribution of income across various ethnic and social groups. Whites continue to demonstrate higher incomes, better education, and quality health care, while African Americans and Latinos, despite overall growth in their numbers and improvements in some indicators, remain less privileged.

Table 3 provides a comprehensive overview of median weekly earnings by race and ethnicity. The data presented in Table 3 reveal a shifting ratio of workers across racial groups. Over the past two decades, the most significant increase in the workforce has been among Hispanic workers. While their proportion was approximately 13% at the beginning of the century, it has already reached 20% in 2024.

It is noteworthy that historically, Asian Americans have consistently demonstrated the highest levels of earnings. Their weekly earnings have increased from $615 to $1,500 since the beginning of the 21st century. Conversely, the weekly earnings of white workers have increased from $590 to $1,167. In 2000, the median weekly earnings for African Americans were $474, while for Hispanics they were $399. Nearly a quarter century later, African Americans’ weekly earnings in full-time employment stand at $941, while Hispanics’ earnings are $903. Furthermore, disparities in earnings between men and women are evident. Specifically, Hispanic men receive an average weekly salary of $963, while their female counterparts receive $831. However, Hispanic families exhibit higher earnings than African American families, a discrepancy that is likely attributable to the number of workers in the family and/or the actual hours worked1 (see Table 4).

Table 3. Trends in the number of workers and their median weekly earnings by racial-ethnic group during presidential election years in the 21st century

Years

Number of employees, thousand people

Average weekly earnings, $/week

Total

White

African Americans

Asian

Hispanics

For all groups

White

African Americans

Asian

Hispanics

2000

101,210

83,228

12,410

4,598

12,761

576

590

474

615

399

2004

101,224

82,324

12,032

4,457

14,061

638

657

525

708

456

2008

106,648

86,022

12,821

5,266

15,807

722

742

589

861

529

2012

102,749

81,779

12,230

5,790

16,302

768

792

621

920

568

2016

111,091

86,474

13,963

7,030

18,950

832

862

678

1,021

624

2020

110,387

85,142

14,044

7,353

19,558

984

1,003

794

1,310

758

2024

119,937

90,152

16,570

8,581

23,649

1,143

1,167

941

1,500

903

Source: [BLS 2024].

The fastest growing Hispanic population is beginning to play an increasingly important role in the US labor market and economy. Nevertheless, the earnings of Latinos remain lower than those of White Americans, and they encounter obstacles when attempting to access career and professional education opportunities.

This phenomenon is beginning to exert a considerable influence on political processes. As the demographic of Latinos within the United States continues to expand, their political influence concomitantly increases. As Grigoryev and Grigoryeva (2021) note, “the structure of inequality by race has a direct relation to the configuration of electoral coalitions, the formation of the agenda and election slogans of both parties” [Grigoryev, Grigoryeva 2021. P. 107]. Issues pertinent to the Latin American community, such as access to healthcare, education, labor rights, and migrant rights, have begun to occupy a central position in political discourse. Issues concerning Latin Americans are becoming increasingly salient for politicians seeking their support. This phenomenon is poised to influence not only the electoral outcomes but also the evolution of policies toward more inclusive solutions aimed at mitigating inequality.

“The socio-economic situation in the United States is traditionally of great importance for the outcome of elections” [Grigoryev, Grigoryeva 2021. P. 108]. Figure 4 presents a distribution analysis of median income across US states, categorized by their respective party affiliations, along with a review of seven swing states that voted in the 2024 elections. It is evident that the distribution of states by income level remains quite far from equal. The median per capita income in 2023 was recorded at $80,600 [US Census Bureau 2024a] with a range from $47,000 in Mississippi to $124,000 in California and $162,000 in the District of Columbia. The southern states of Alabama ($55,000), Tennessee ($59,000), and Louisiana ($56,000) exhibit comparatively lower incomes and less favorable living standards in the southern region of the country. Conversely, high-income states are predominantly located in the Northeast and along the West Coast, including Massachusetts ($128,000), New York (104), Alaska (114), and California (124).

Figure 4. Median income by state in 2024, thousand dollars / capita

Table 4 presents a comparative analysis of the distribution of US household income at the beginning of the 21st century and in 2023. The data reveal a general upward trend in income among all ethnic groups. However, significant disparities persist, particularly among African Americans and Hispanics. The data effectively highlight the disparities between ethnic groups. Specifically, the median incomes of White Americans (excluding Hispanics) were found to be lower than those of Asian Americans ($89,000 and $113,000, respectively) but significantly higher than those of African Americans ($56,000) and Hispanics ($65,500). The lower median incomes observed among African Americans and Hispanics highlight the prevalence of economic inequality.

A notable finding is the rise in the proportion of high-income households. Consequently, the proportion of households with incomes exceeding $100,000 has experienced a substantial increase, growing from 22.7% in 2000 to 40.9% in 2023. A particularly important growth trend is evident in the proportion of households with incomes over $200,000, which has increased from 4.3% in 2000 to 14.4% in 2023.

Concurrently, the proportion of households with low income has decreased, suggesting a decline in poverty levels. For instance, the proportion of households with incomes below $35,000 decreased from 31.9% to 21% across all population groups. However, this decline was less pronounced among African Americans and Hispanics. Notably, disparities in income growth persist among racial-ethnic groups. Asian incomes have exhibited the most significant growth, particularly among the upper segments. These trends have implications for voter preferences and the selection of candidates in electoral processes, including presidential elections.

Table 4. Distribution of US households by income in 2000 and 2023

 

The entire population

African Americans

Asian

Hispanics

White Americans (non-Hispanic)

2000

2023

2002

2023

2002

2023

2000

2023

2000

2023

Number of households, thousand

106,418

132,200

13 470

18 040

3,917

7,655

9,663

19,860

80,530

84,440

Average income, thousand dollars

57

114.5

64

81

113

158

73

91

102

123

Median income, thousand dollars

70

95

47

56

85

113

55

65.5

76

89

Distribution of total cash income by 20% population groups, in %

    

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Bottom 20% of the population (lowest income)

    

31.3

30.8

n/a

14.5

24.6

23.1

17.6

17.4

Second group

    

22.3

23.7

n/a

14.1

25.1

24.8

19.2

18.5

Third group

    

21.3

20.2

n/a

16.5

22.7

21.1

19.6

20.0

Fourth group

    

15.0

15.2

n/a

20.9

17.6

18.3

21.0

21.4

Fifth group (with the highest incomes)

    

10

10.1

n/a

34.0

10.0

12.3

22.5

22.7

Top 5% of wealthiest households

    

1.9

2.2

n/a

11.6

1.9

2.5

5.8

5.6

Below 15,000

11.1

7.4

16.7

13.9

7.4

5.8

9.3

8.5

6.3

5.9

15,000 – 24,999

10.6

6.7

12.3

9.8

5.8

4.6

9.9

7.5

7.8

6.0

25,000 – 34,999

10.2

6.9

10.2

8.5

6.5

4.7

11.4

8.3

7.5

6.5

Total 0-34,999

31.9

21.0

39.2

32.2

19.7

15.1

30.6

24.3

21.6

18.4

35,000 – 49,999

14.1

10.3

14.2

12.6

10.1

7.5

14.1

12.7

11.0

9.4

50,000 – 74,999

16.3

15.7

17.3

17.1

11.5

11.4

20.3

18.5

16.7

15.0

75,000 – 99,999

13.0

12.1

10.3

12.1

13.6

10.0

12.9

12.5

13.3

12.2

Total 35,000– 99,999

43.4

38.1

41.8

41.0

35.2

28.9

47.3

43.7

41.0

36.6

100,000 – 149,999

13.2

17.0

11.3

13.2

17.5

17.3

14.0

15.7

18.7

18.1

150,000 – 199,999

5.2

9.5

4.4

5.5

11.2

11.7

4.4

7.8

8.9

10.5

200,000 and up

4.3

14.4

3.3

7.3

13.3

26.9

3.7

8.3

9.8

16.3

Total 100,000 and up

22.7

40.9

19.0

26.0

42

55.9

22.1

31.8

37.4

44.9

Population share

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Source : https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/tables/hinc-06/2001/new07_000.txt, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/cps-hinc/hinc-06.html, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/cps-hinc/hinc-05.html, https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-282.pdf

Voting structure

The voting patterns exhibited in the United States are influenced by a multitude of key factors, including geography, demographics, history, and current political events. As the United States experiences an increase in ethnic diversity, the influence of ethnic and gender voting patterns becomes more significant. De facto ethnic groups exhibit different compositions of socio-political attitudes and preferences, which affect electoral outcomes. As demonstrated in Table 5, there has been a notable shift in the composition of the US electorate over the past four decades.

Table 5. Racial and ethnic composition of voters in US presidential elections in 1980–2020, %

 

White (non-Hispanic)

African Americans

Asian

Hispanics

Others (non-Hispanic)

1980

87.6

8.9

0

2.6

1

1984

85.5

10

0

3

1.4

1988

84.9

9.8

0

3.6

1.7

1992

84.6

9.9

0

3.7

1.7

1996

82.5

10.3

0

4.7

2.2

2000

80.7

11.5

0

5.4

2.4

2004

79.2

11

2.2

6

1.6

2008

76.3

12.1

2.5

7.4

1.7

2012

73.7

12.9

2.8

8.4

2.1

2016

73.3

11.9

3.6

9.2

2

2020

71.0

11.7

4.3

10.6

2.4

Source: [US Census Bureau 2022].

As demonstrated by the data presented, the proportion of White voters has decreased to 71%, while the proportion of minority voters has increased. If in 1980 minorities constituted 12.5% of the electorate, in 2000 they accounted for 19.3%, and in the 2020 elections their share increased to 26.6%. It is noteworthy that these figures are drawn from official US statistics reported by the US Census Bureau. However, the Pew Research Center, based on its research, speaks of higher shares. The Hispanic electorate has expanded by nearly 22 million individuals over the span of twenty-five years. Consequently, their electoral participation has increased accordingly. While the Hispanic electorate constituted 7.4% of the electorate at the beginning of the century according to Pew and 5.4% according to the Census, it rose to 14.7% in 2024 (Pew). By their calculations, in 2024, African Americans constitute 14% of the electorate, while Asian Americans account for 6.1%.2 Historically, voters with higher income and education levels have consistently participated more actively in elections compared to those with lower incomes. Education level is often associated with income, and citizens with higher levels of education tend to be more informed about the impact of politics on the economy and their personal finances, which motivates them to vote. The election outcomes can be influenced by the disproportionate participation of affluent citizens, while the share of low-income voters may remain underestimated, leading to a distorted view of the real interests of all groups. In 2024, Trump’s campaign strategies focused on mobilizing non-traditional voters, particularly those less inclined to participate in elections.

In the 2020 election, voter turnout reached 66.6%, marking a record at the time. In 2024, the United States’ voter registration stood at 244 million, with preliminary data indicating a turnout of approximately 65%. In certain states, voter turnout in 2024 exceeded that of 2020, setting a new record that had persisted for the past 44 years. For instance, Oregon (75%), Wisconsin (76.1%), Michigan (73.8%), Pennsylvania (70.2%), and Georgia (67.6%) have all witnessed a surge in voter participation. On average, voter turnout increased by 1% in these states [The Washington Post 2024a].

Since the year 2000, the total number of voters in the US has increased from 186.4 million to 246 million, reflecting the growth in the US population eligible to vote (see Table 6). A notable increase in voter participation has been observed across all racial-ethnic groups. Notably, approximately 1.4 million Hispanics in the US attain voting eligibility annually. The Pew Research Center estimates that 36.2 million Hispanics are eligible to vote in 2024, representing a substantial increase from 32.3 million in 2020 and 14.3 million at the beginning of the century.

A similar trend is observed in the African American electorate, which has grown from 23.3 million in 2000 to an estimated 34.4 million in 2024. While the growth rate of the African American electorate is not as rapid as that of the Hispanic population, African Americans continue to be a significant voting bloc.

Conversely, the Asian electorate has experienced the most rapid growth, with a nearly tripled increase from 5.4 million in 2000 to 15 million in 2024. This growth is indicative of the increasing influence of the Asian electorate within the US political system.

Concurrently, while White voters continue to represent the largest demographic group, their relative share of the total electorate is exhibiting a decline. The shifting demographic landscape, marked by changes in the number of racial-ethnic groups, signifies a transformation in the American electorate and an escalating influence of minority groups on political processes within the nation.

Table 6. Number of Americans eligible to vote, by racial-ethnic group, million people

Years

Hispanics

African Americans

Asians

Whites

Total

2000

14.3

23.3

5.4

143.4

186.4

2004

n/a

n/a

n/a

 n/a

197.0

2008

19.3

26.7

7.8

152.3

206.1

2012

23.6

29.1

9.6

152.8

215.1

2016

27.3

31.0

11.3

154.5

224.1

2020

32.3

32.2

13.0

154.1

231.6

2024

36.2

34.4

15.0

160.3

246

Source: compiled by the author on the basis of Pew Research Center materials: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/10/key-facts-about-hispanic-eligible-voters-in-2024/, https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/10/key-facts-about-black-eligible-voters-in-2024/

The state of California is home to 25% of all eligible Hispanic voters. Texas, Florida, New York, and Arizona are the next largest states in terms of the number of Hispanics eligible to vote [Pew Research Center 2024b]. A significant proportion of these voters, more than half in fact, are under the age of 40, and the vast majority were born in the United States. The support that these voters express for particular politicians, platforms, and parties is determined by their own value systems. However, identifying the ideological orientation of minority representatives poses significant challenges [Kuvaldina 2012].

Minority communities often place significant emphasis on familial values, exhibit opposition to same-sex marriage, and demonstrate reluctance in supporting the legalization of abortion. Religion exerts a significant influence on the lives of African Americans and Hispanics. This ideological inclination often aligns them with the positions of the Republican Party. Noteworthy is the fact that for Hispanics, the most salient issues are immigration policy and bilingual education.

Conversely, the Republican Party’s platform asserts the primacy of English as “the only official state language, a unifying force necessary for the further development of immigrant communities and the nation as a whole” [Travkina 2018].

Figure 5 illustrates the dynamics of support for the two primary political parties in the United States—the Republican and Democratic parties—among racial-ethnic groups within the American electorate. White voters have demonstrated consistent allegiance to the Republican Party. Conversely, Hispanic (Latino) voters, while still predominantly aligning with the Democratic Party, are exhibiting a gradual shift in their preferences toward the Republican Party. Among Asian Americans, there is a discernible trend of increasing support for the Republican Party, although the Democratic Party maintains its dominance. Notably, African Americans continue to be the Democratic Party’s most loyal electoral group. These data reflect gradual yet significant changes in the political orientation of various racial and ethnic groups in American society. This phenomenon is indicative of a more broadly observed strengthening of minority positions in the 2024–2028 electoral cycle, observed in the work of Leonid Grigoryev, who published his findings over a decade ago [Grigoryev 2013].

Figure 5. Transformation of the American electorate by racial-ethnic groups

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/partisanship-by-race-ethnicity-and-education/pp_2024-4-9_partisan-coalitions_2-01-png/

According to the Gallup Institute, the Democratic Party’s partisan advantage among Black and Hispanic voters reached a new low in February 2024. The study also found that Democrats maintained a smaller advantage among young adults. These shifts in party affiliation among key subgroups have led to a transition in the overall partisan landscape, characterized by a narrowing of the Democratic advantage over Republicans from substantial margins observed between 2012 and 2021 to modest deficits in 2022 and 2023 [Gallup 2024].

For young people, elections represent a significant opportunity to exercise their democratic rights, articulate their political voice, and shape the future of the nation. In the 2024 elections, while young people demonstrated a preference for Kamala Harris, as indicated by a 6% margin, this preference was significantly less pronounced in comparison to the 2020 elections, where the margin stood at 25 percentage points. This indicates a substantial shift in party preferences among both young men and women over the past four years, suggesting either a notable change in the attitudes of these demographic groups or the presence of significantly different segments of the youth electorate in 2020 and 2024 [Circle 2024].

Individuals with higher education levels are more likely to align with the Democratic Party, though this pattern is not universally applicable and is influenced by various factors, including racial and ethnic disparities. The support among White voters is more heterogeneous. In recent years, there has been an almost even split among college-educated White voters between the two parties, although young Whites with college degrees are more likely to support the Democrats. This observation underscores the notion that the educational divide is intricately linked with age and cultural factors.

Among non-White voters, both the educated and the less educated, support for the Democrats is significantly higher, reflecting ethnic and cultural preferences that have historically been observed between minorities and political parties. In contrast, party differences among educated Whites are much smaller.

In her study, Marina Chernykh (see Figure 6) presents a contemporary political portrait of Americans with roots in Hispanic Latin American countries who self-identify as supporters of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.

Figure 6. Political profile of Hispanic voters (estimate before the 2024 election)

Source: Chernykh, M.A., 2023. Trends of Hispanic Voters: A Shift towards the Republican Party? USA & Canada: Economics, Politics, Culture, No 9. P. 74–86.

Republicans and Democrats in the 21st century are experiencing great changes. This transformation is primarily attributable to shifting demographics and the evolution of their established ideological tenets [Travkina 2018].

Table 7 shows the results of the distribution of electoral votes since 2000.

Table 7. Distribution of votes between Republicans and Democrats in presidential elections since 2000

 

Republican

Democrat

Electoral votes

Number of people who voted, mln

Share of those who voted, %

R

D

R

D

R

D

2000

George W. Bush

Albert Gore

271

266

50.45

50.99

47.9

48.4

2004

George W. Bush

John Kerry

286

251

62.02

59.02

50.7

48.3

2008

John McCain

Barack Obama

173

365

59.93

69.45

45.7

52.9

2012

Mitt Romney

Barack Obama

206

332

60.58

65.44

47.1

50.9

2016

Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

304

227

65.84

62.97

48.1

46.0

2020

Donald Trump

Joseph Biden

232

306

74.21

81.26

46.9

51.3

2024

Donald Trump

Kamala Harris

226

312

74.7

70.1

50.5

48.0

Source: [Britannica 2024].

The 2000 presidential election was won by Republican George W. Bush. The election was characterized by a tight margin, leading to legal disputes concerning alleged irregularities in the state of Florida. In 2004, George W. Bush. secured a second term, triumphing over the Democratic nominee, John Kerry. In 2008, Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, became the first African American to be elected president. In 2012, Obama secured a second term, once again defeating Republican Mitt Romney. In 2016, Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, faced Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, in the election. Donald Trump (Republican) defeated Hillary Clinton, becoming the first president without prior experience in politics. In the 2020 election, Joseph Biden, the Democratic nominee, secured a victory over Donald Trump, thereby becoming the 46th President of the United States. A central theme of Biden’s campaign was the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, with Biden actively criticizing the Trump administration’s response to it. He pledged to manage the epidemic more effectively and to facilitate economic recovery in the aftermath of the pandemic. The selection of Kamala Harris as his vice-presidential candidate enabled Biden to appeal to young people, women, and ethnic minorities, thereby strengthening his position among these demographic groups [BBC 2020].

The 2020 presidential election witnessed the highest voter turnout in the 21st century, marking a significant increase from previous presidential elections. While numerous states maintained conventional voting procedures, the advent of the pandemic spurred other states to adopt early voting practices, including the automatic mailing of ballots to all registered voters, which could be returned by mail. Consequently, voting by non-traditional methods has undergone a substantial increase (see Figure 7; dramatic increase in voting by mail). This phenomenon has led to the emergence of a “postal democracy 2020,” where the number of votes cast by mail exceeded the number of voters who cast their ballots at polling stations on Election Day. This figure has doubled compared to the 2016 election results. This development has introduced greater complexity in the prediction of voter behavior, particularly in light of the substantial increase in voting by mail among minority groups, a phenomenon that often marks their inaugural experience with this method of voting. Consequently, the accuracy of election forecasts, particularly those based on exit polls conducted on Election Day, was significantly diminished, as these polls covered only approximately two-fifths of the total voting population in 2020.

Figure 7. Methods of voting in presidential elections in the period 2004–2020, %

Source: [US Census Bureau 2022].

The 2024 election

In November 2024, the anniversary 60th US presidential election took place. The contest was traditionally between the Republican and Democratic parties, with independents from the Kennedy clan withdrawing their candidacy in swing states in favor of Trump. Each presidential election is characterized by its unique set of circumstances, including the personal attributes of the candidates, the state of the economy, and historical events such as a global pandemic. The shifting racial and ethnic composition of the electorate is a critical factor in understanding the evolution of political trends over time [Pew Research Center 2024a]. It is imperative to acknowledge that the US electoral system is structured on a two-tiered framework, wherein the primary voting takes place at the state level, and the results of these elections subsequently inform the electoral votes that determine the president.

It is imperative to recognize that the requisite number of electoral votes to secure victory is 270. The pivotal contest unfolded for 77 electoral votes in the so-called swing states, where, on the eve of the election, the popularity of candidates from both major parties was approximately equal (see Figure 4). It is important to note that the list of swing states is subject to change from one election to another. A general rule posits that the greater the number of independent voters—that is, voters who are not strictly party affiliated and vote differently from election to election—in a state, the greater the probability that the state will be classified as a swing state. In the 2024 presidential election, the states that exhibited this characteristic were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina [Axios 2024].

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the demographic structure of swing states has changed (see Tables 8 and 9)

Table 8. Racial and ethnic composition of the US electorate in swing states

 

US

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

Population (mln people)

336

7.2

10.7

10.1

3.1

10.5

13

5.9

White (non-Hispanic), %

2000

76

75

68

82

76

75

87

91

2010

72

69

63

80

66

72

84

88

2018

67

63

58

79

58

69

81

86

Hispanics, %

2000

7

15

2

2

10

2

2

2

2010

10

19

3

3

15

3

4

3

2018

13

24

5

3

20

4

5

4

African American population, %

2000

12

3

27

13

7

20

9

5

2010

12

4

31

14

8

21

10

5

2018

13

5

32

13

9

22

10

6

Asian origin, %

2000

2

1

1

1

3

1

1

1

2010

4

2

2

1

6

1

2

1

2018

4

3

3

2

8

2

2

2

Others, %

2000

2

6

1

2

4

2

1

1

2010

2

6

1

2

4

2

1

2

2018

3

6

2

2

5

3

2

2

Source: Pew Research Center.

The mean of the three groups across the United States is 30%. Only two swing states have minority populations (excluding others) noticeably above 30% (Georgia 40%, Nevada 37%). Conversely, four states are notable for their substantial Hispanic or African American populations, which collectively account for over 20% of the state’s population and exceed the national average. It is evident that the outcome of the presidential election is influenced by both the White population, which is divided into two parties, and these substantial demographic groups.

Table 9. Demographic composition of swing states based on data in 2022

 

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

Population (mln people)

7.17

10.7

10.1

3.1

10.5

13.0

5.88

White (non-Hispanic), %

53

50.8

73.5

46.4

61.7

74.5

79.9

Hispanics, %

32 (2.3 million people)

10.1 (1.08 million people)

5.47 (550 thousand people)

29.6 (919 thousand people)

10 (1.05 million people)

8.12 (1.06 million people)

7.33 (431 thousand people)

African American population, %

4.3

31.1

13.4

9.0

20.6

10.4

6.1

Two or more races (non-Hispanic), %

3.45

3.14

3.68

4.95

3.27

2.98

2.99

Asian origin, %

3.26

4.3

3.24

8.27

3.08

3.6

2.85

Others, %

4

0.56

0.71

1.8

1.35

0.4

0.88

Average age (years)

38.4

37.2

39.9

38.5

39.1

40.8

39.9

Median income (thousand dollars)

72.6

71.4

68.5

71.6

66.2

73.2

72.5

Poverty rate, %

13.1

13.5

13.1

12.7

13.3

11.8

10.7

Source: compiled by the author based on Data USA (https://datausa.io) data for the respective states.

Swing states are undergoing transformations, accompanied by shifts in their electorate. Interestingly, both median age and median income and poverty rates are generally quite close—none of the seven are the poorest or richest states in the US. A comprehensive understanding of the shifts in racial and ethnic demographics within these key states can offer insights into the potential evolution of political trends over time.

In the 2020 election, urban, educated voters in major cities in California, New England, and the South demonstrated a clear preference for the Democratic challenger, although his primary margin was with minority groups. This suggests a particular challenge for non-White educated individuals, as their preferences were predominantly aligned with Biden, including Asian Americans, who have historically demonstrated higher incomes compared to Whites [Grigoryev, Grigoryeva 2021. P. 114]. The shift in votes from Trump to Biden was predominantly attributed to the voting patterns of African American women who opted for mail-in voting.

Table 10 illustrates the shift in voting patterns in swing states during the initial quarter of the 21st century. In the 2024 election, all swing states cast their votes in favor of the Republican Party.

Table 10. Voting outcomes in swing states since the beginning of the 21st century, %

Election Year

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

Number of electors

11

16

15

6

16

19

10

2000

R.

51

55

46.1

49.5

56

46.4

47.6

D.

44.7

43.2

51.3

45.9

43.1

50.6

47.8

2004

R.

54.9

58

47.8

50.5

56

48.4

49.3

D.

44.4

41.4

51.2

47.9

43.6

50.9

49.7

2008

R.

53.6

52.2

41

42.7

49.4

44.2

42.3

D.

45.1

47

57.4

55.1

49.7

54.5

56.2

2012

R.

53.7

53.3

44.7

45.7

50.4

46

45.9

D.

44.6

45.5

54.2

52.4

48.4

52.1

52.8

2016

R.

48.7

50.8

47.5

45.5

49.8

48.6

47.2

D.

45.1

45.6

47.3

47.9

46.2

47.9

46.5

2020

R.

49.1

49.2

47.8

47.7

49.9

48.8

48.8

D.

49.4

49.5

50.6

50.1

48.6

50

49.4

2024

R.

52.3

50.7

49.7

50.6

51.1

50.5

49.7

D.

46.7

48.5

48.4

47.5

47.7

48.5

48.8

Source: compiled by the author.

The victory of Trump in the 2024 election in swing states can be attributed to a number of factors. Primarily, his campaign focused on economic and cultural issues that resonated with diverse segments of the electorate. During the campaign, Trump articulated his MAGA (Make America Great Again) economic program with notable clarity to voters. Among the Latino electorate, the economy was identified as the paramount concern, with 93% of respondents citing it as a pivotal factor in their electoral decision, alongside considerations such as crime and immigration. For a considerable segment of the Latino electorate, economic concerns, particularly the high cost of housing and goods, served as the predominant motivation for selecting a candidate. Prioritizing economic stability and maintaining security emerged as a pivotal factor in sustaining support among Hispanic men during the election [Pew Research Center 2024a].

White voters have exhibited a modest but persistent inclination toward Republican candidates over the past four decades. Historically, racial minorities have been observed to cast their votes predominantly for Democratic candidates. It is crucial to acknowledge that racial-ethnic groups do not constitute homogenous entities. There is a great diversity of views and preferences within them. Table 11 provides a synopsis of data from 2000, illustrating that African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians exhibit a pronounced tendency to cast their votes for Democratic candidates. Historically, African Americans have voted for Democratic candidates at a rate of approximately 90 percent. During the 2008 presidential election, 95% of African Americans voted for Obama.

Table 11. Voting patterns by racial-ethnic group from 2000 to 2024, % (Exit polls)

Election year and candidates

White

African Americans

Hispanics

Asian

Others

R.

D.

R.

D.

R.

D.

R.

D.

R.

D.

2000

George W. Bush (Republican) and Al Gore (Democrat)

54

42

9

90

35

62

41

55

39

55

2004

George W. Bush (Republican) and John Kerry (Democrat)

58

41

11

88

44

53

44

56

40

54

2008

John McCain (Republican) and Barack Obama (Democrat)

55

43

4

95

31

67

35

62

31

66

2012

Mitt Romney (Republican) and Barack Obama (Democrat)

59

39

6

93

27

71

26

73

38

58

2016

Donald Trump (Republican) and Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

58

37

8

88

29

65

29

65

37

56

2020

Donald Trump (Republican) and Joseph Biden (Democrat)

58

41

12

87

32

65

34

61

41

55

2024

Donald Trump (Republican) and Kamala Harris (Democrat)

57

41

13

85

46

52

39

54

42

54

Source: [The New York Times 2020, The Washington Post 2024b].

The proportion of Hispanic votes has increased from 53% to 71%, reflecting the heterogeneity of the Hispanic electorate. For instance, Americans of Mexican, Puerto Rican, and Dominican descent tend to align with the Democratic Party, while Cuban and Colombian Americans demonstrate a stronger inclination toward Republican support. A notable instance is the 2004 election, when 44% of Hispanic voters cast their ballots for Republican Candidate George W. Bush. A closer look at the geographic distribution of the Hispanic population reveals that those residing in the western United States, particularly in California, tend to align more closely with the Democratic Party. Historically, Hispanic Americans who are eligible to vote have exhibited lower rates of voter turnout compared to other demographic groups. This phenomenon has been attributed to the historical tendency of immigrants to adopt a neutral stance, neither aligning fully with their country of origin nor fully with the United States. Engaging in political activities necessitates the cultivation and/or fortification of robust connections. Immigrants, on the other hand, have demonstrated a preference for maintaining a neutral stance, opting not to align with either country’s political landscape. However, this detachment is gradually being replaced by increased political engagement, albeit less active than in other racial-ethnic groups, among the second and third generations of Hispanics who have established their lives in the United States [Espino, Leal, and Meier 2007].

A key difference between the Hispanic and African American communities is the absence of a perceived unified political identity among the former. While there are numerous similarities that characterize all Latino groups, they lack a common agenda. This absence of a cohesive agenda can be partially attributed to the historical experience of Hispanic communities, which have not endured the same degree of racial or cultural oppression as African Americans. The challenges confronting the Hispanic community are predominantly attributed to their socio-economic circumstances, which, akin to the issue of immigration, has the potential to serve as a unifying, if not a consolidating, factor for the cohesion of its members [Kuvaldina 2012].

With regard to the Asian minority vote, the results are contingent, in part, on the ethnicity of the electorate. It is widely accepted that Americans of Chinese and Indian origin are more inclined to align with Democratic Party policies, while those of Vietnamese origin are more likely to support Republican Party candidates. The historical context of immigration patterns and contemporary foreign policy dynamics with their respective countries of origin play a significant role in shaping these voting preferences.

Furthermore, racial and ethnic group differences in voter turnout rates are pronounced. Historically, White voters have consistently demonstrated high rates of voter turnout. African Americans also exhibit relatively high rates of voter turnout, though they are generally lower than those observed among Whites. However, there were notable exceptions observed in the 2008 and 2012 votes. In 2020, a significant proportion of African American women cast their votes by mail, a development that significantly altered the electoral outcome, predominantly favoring the Democratic Party.

Historical analysis indicates that while a politician may garner the support of a substantial segment of the electorate on a national scale, this alone is not necessarily sufficient to secure the presidency. This phenomenon was exemplified by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and her fellow party member Al Gore in 2000 [Zabrodin 2024].

Since 2000, there have been notable differences in voting behavior among different racial-ethnic groups in US presidential elections. These variances in voting patterns are indicative of the social, economic, and political realities experienced by each group, as well as their responses to the candidates and their respective agendas.

African American voters have historically demonstrated a strong affinity for the Democratic Party. This pattern reached a notable high in 2008 and 2012, coinciding with the election of Obama. For instance, in 2008, approximately 95% of African American voters cast their ballots for Obama. In subsequent years, support for the Democratic Party among African Americans remained high, although in 2020 there was a slight increase in votes for Republican candidate Trump (approximately 12%), although this was not sufficient to impact the overall electoral outcome.

The Hispanic population, meanwhile, has emerged as a growing demographic with a diverse array of political preferences. Historically, the Hispanic community has exhibited a tendency to align with the Democratic Party, though this demographic does not exhibit the same level of cohesion in their political preferences as the African American community. In the 2000s, approximately 60% of Latinos cast their votes for the Democratic Party. However, in 2016 and 2020, a notable segment of the Latino electorate in certain states, such as Florida, expressed support for Donald Trump, particularly Cuban Americans and natives of Venezuela.

Asian voters have also demonstrated a historical tendency to support the Democratic Party, though their voting patterns exhibited greater diversity until the 2000s. Their support for the Democratic Party has been growing over the past decade. This trend is exemplified by the substantial proportion of Asian voters who cast their ballots for Biden in the 2020 presidential election, amounting to approximately 63%. The Asian community is characterized by significant internal diversity, with political preferences exhibiting variation based on factors such as nationality, age, and education level.

Among the White electorate, which constitutes the largest demographic, there is greater heterogeneity in political preferences. White voters, constituting the largest demographic, exhibit a greater propensity to align with the Republican Party, a tendency that is particularly pronounced among Protestant voters [Sokolschik 2021]. For instance, Trump received approximately 57% of the White vote in 2016. Conversely, support for the Democrats is more prevalent among college-educated Whites and in urban areas.

In the 2008 and 2012 presidential election, African Americans demonstrated overwhelming support for Obama, and a notable proportion of Latino and Asian voters also expressed similar preferences. Conversely, White voters exhibited a more fragmented support base, with Republicans receiving the majority of their votes.

In the 2020 election, Biden garnered substantial support from African Americans, Latinos, and Asians, while Trump once again succeeded in mobilizing White working-class voters.

The electoral preferences of racial-ethnic groups have become an increasingly important factor in presidential elections, and these differences continue to shape the US political landscape.

In 2024, Trump and Biden were initially vying for the presidency. Biden announced on July 21 that he was withdrawing his candidacy,3 and the Federal Election Commission received notice of the nomination of the country’s vice president, Kamala Harris, for the presidency. The racial and ethnic roots of Harris, which include Jamaican and Indian ancestry, have enabled political strategists to position her as both “Black” and “Asian” — two dynamic voting groups within the American electorate. Her gender and ethnicity are symbolic of progress on equality and may appeal to voters seeking inclusiveness. Harris’s advocacy for women’s rights, including reproductive rights, and pay equity, positions her as a proponent of social justice. Her work on these issues may appeal to an electorate concerned about social justice. Additionally, Harris’is affiliated with the Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority, Inc., widely regarded as the nation’s oldest African American sorority [UlysMedia 2024].

A notable aspect of her political stance is her support for women’s right to abortion, a position that is at odds with the Catholic Church’s stance on the matter. Following the September debate, Pope Francis criticized both candidates, urging 52 million Catholics to vote and choose “the lesser of two evils” [BBC 2024].

Researchers in Russia have found that the ongoing influx of illegal immigrants from Latin America has a significant impact on the political process in the United States. They have concluded that this crisis and the resulting socio-economic challenges will lead to an escalation in political polarization within the country, thereby strengthening the position of the Republican Party candidate in the 2024 elections [Sokolshchik, Sakaev, and Galimullin 2023].

In the 2024 election, there was a significant decline in Latino support for the Democratic Party, which was also observed among some Black and Hispanic groups nationwide and in individual states. Noteworthy shifts have also emerged within specific demographic categories across various racial groups. The most significant shift, however, is evident among Hispanic males, who have undergone a notable transition between 2020 and 2024. These individuals have demonstrated a notable inclination toward Trump. In contrast, Hispanic women favored Harris, although their numbers declined compared to 2020 [Brookings 2024].

This shift in policy preferences among racial-ethnic groups may have been part of a nationwide reaction to the high prices of food, housing, and other necessities that accompanied the once-in-a-century pandemic [Brookings 2024].

In any event, as the demographic composition of the electorate evolves to include a greater proportion of non-White voters, these individuals are poised to wield increased political influence. The demographic shifts occurring within the United States necessitate that political parties acknowledge the interests and necessities of these groups to maintain electoral competitiveness.

The traditional demographic composition of the electorate affiliated with the Democratic and Republican parties has undergone significant shifts. The electoral dynamics of the Trump–Harris election race are indicative of the shifting electoral preferences of several social groups. The following social groups expressed their support for Trump: men (55%), Whites (57%), White men (60%), White women (53%), Hispanic men (55%), individuals across all age groups over 40, those with no education (63%), and college-educated individuals (51%). Trump garnered the support from individuals with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 annually (53%), those with incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 (51%), Protestants (63%), Catholics (58%), families with children (53%), married (56%), and those who have served in the US military (65%), first-time voters (56%), individuals who perceive the economy to be in a state of decline (87%), those who believe their family’s financial situation has deteriorated in the past 4 years (81%), those for whom inflation over the past year has been a significant challenge (74%). Additionally, those for whom inflation has caused moderate hardship (51%), individuals for whom migration issues were most important (90%), those for whom the economy was most important (80%), and those for whom foreign policy issues were most important (57%) [NBS 2024].

Conclusion

The transformation of the ethnic structure of the US electorate in the 21st century is the result of the interaction of various factors, including migration, the political influence of interest groups, socio-economic dynamics, and media processes. These processes give rise to a distinctive political landscape, wherein diverse ethnic groups assume a pivotal role in shaping national politics and public opinion.

Immigration remains a pivotal factor in altering the demographic composition of the electorate. New waves of immigrants, who are becoming citizens and gaining the right to vote, contribute to the electorate’s diversity, thereby altering the balance of political power at both the local and national levels. Despite the rising demographic of non-White voters, concerns regarding their integration and political representation persist as relevant issues.

The evolving racial and ethnic composition of the electorate in the United States is a protracted and intricate process that exerts a substantial influence on the nation’s politics, social development, and economy. To address these changes, a multifaceted approach is necessary, encompassing policy reforms, social programs, and economic measures. Such measures are essential for maintaining stability and prosperity across all demographic groups.

The US presidential election of 2024 reflected significant changes in voter preferences among racial and ethnic groups, which was an important factor in Trump’s victory over Harris. In the context of mounting ethnic and racial shifts within the electorate, the Republican Party successfully augmented its appeal among minority groups that had historically favored the Democrats. Trump’s campaign was particularly focused on garnering the votes of African American and Latino men by highlighting issues that were of concern to these demographic groups, such as employment and immigration. Concurrently, a significant segment of White voters and economically disadvantaged populations, particularly those residing in industrial regions that historically aligned with the Democrats, expressed support for Trump, citing concerns regarding the ramifications of prevailing economic policies.

The 2024 election revealed a deepening divide in American society, where issues of race, ethnicity, and economic inequality influenced voter preferences and biased the outcome in favor of the Republican Party.

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Notes

1 https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2022/demo/families/cps-2022.html; https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat22.htm

2 The analysis is based on data from the US Census Bureau’s 2022, 2020, 2016, 2012, and 2008 American Community Surveys and the 2000 US Decennial Census provided through the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) (https://usa.ipums.org/usa/).

3 In doing so Biden became the first president not to seek re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.