Transformation of the Ethnic Structure of the US Electorate
Abstract
The article analyzes the changes in the ethnic structure of the US electorate in the 21st century, which have significantly transformed the political landscape of the country. The study identifies major demographic trends, such as the increasing share of Hispanic, African-American, and Asian populations, and their impact on electoral preferences and election results. Special attention is paid to racial-ethnic composition in swing states and its correlation with income levels.
The article notes that Donald Trump won a landslide victory in the 2024 presidential election and also won in all swing states. Although Hispanics in general are more likely to vote for the Democratic Party, Trump was able to attract a significant portion of Hispanic males in 2024. This was due to his emphasis on economic issues, including lowering the cost of living, providing jobs, and fighting inflation. Trump’s economic agenda, including promises to increase economic stability and create jobs, was a key factor in his victory. These themes attracted working-class voters and those concerned about high housing and commodity costs. Trump was able to attract a portion of conservative African-American and Hispanic voters who share his views on traditional family values, religious issues, and immigration policy. This breadth of the coalition, which brought together both the traditional core of Republicans and new groups of voters, was a crucial factor in his success.
The author uses analytical, historical, and comparative methods to assess the dynamics of political activity of different ethnic groups. The significance of taking ethnic diversity into account in electoral strategies and its role in shaping the future of the US political map is emphasized. The conclusions of the article confirm the need to adapt traditional political approaches to new demographic realities and changing preferences of the electorate.
Downloads
References
Axios, 2024. Behind the Curtain: 6% of six states. Available at: https://www.axios.com/2024/05/06/biden-trump-election-swing-states
BBC, 2020. Not just the coronavirus: Five reasons for Joe Biden’s US election victory. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-54875107
BBC, 2024. The lesser of two evils. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cn7yldzm14ro?ocid=wsrussian.social.in-app-messaging.telegram..russiantelegram_.edit
BLS, 2024. Available at: https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
Britannica, 2024. United States Presidential Election Results. Available at: https://www.britannica.com/topic/United-States-Presidential-Election-Results-1788863
Brookings, 2021a. 2020 Census: Big cities have grown and become more diverse, especially among their youth. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/2020-census-big-cities-grew-and-became-more-diverse-especially-among-their-youth/
Brookings, 2021b. New 2020 Census Results Show Increased Diversity Counteracting Decade-Long Declines In America’s White And Youth Populations. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-2020-census-results-show-increased-diversity-countering-decade-long-declines-in-americas-white-and-youth-populations/
Brookings, 2024. Trump gained some minority voters, but the GOP is hardly a multiracial coalition. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-gained-some-minority-voters-but-the-gop-is-hardly-a-multiracial-coalition/
Center for Immigration Studies, 2022. Foreign-Born Population Hits Record 46.6 Million in January 2022. Available at: https://cis.org/Camarota/ForeignBorn-Population-Hits-Record-466-Million-January-2022
Circle, 2024. The youth vote in the 2024 election. Available at: https://circle.tufts.edu/2024-election#youth-vote-+6-for-harris,-but-young-men-+14-for-trump
Espino, R., Leal, D.L., Meier, K.J. (eds), 2007. Latino Politics: Identity, Mobilization and Representation. University of Virginia Press. Р. 44–63.
Gallup, 2024. Democrats Lose Ground with Black and Hispanic Adults. Available at: https://news.gallup.com/poll/609776/democrats-lose-ground-black-hispanic-adults.aspx
Grigoryev, L., 2013. The USA: Three socio-economic problems. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No 12. P. 48–73. Available at: https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2013-12-48-73 (in Russian).
Grigoryev, L.M., Grigoryeva, N.L., 2021. U.S. economy and social structure before the change of eras. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No 1. P. 98–119. Available at: https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-1-98-119 (in Russian).
Kuvaldina, A.V., 2012. Ethnic and racial minorities of the USA: ideological orientations, political preferences, electoral activity. Polis. Political Studies, No 6. P. 165–174. Available at: https://www.politstudies.ru/en/article/4651 (in Russian).
MPI, 2020. Unauthorized Immigrants in the United States Stable Numbers, Changing Origins. Available at: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/mpi-unauthorized-immigrants-stablenumbers-changingorigins_final.pdf
NBS News 2024. Exit Polls. Available at: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls
NVSS, 2024. Births: Final Data for 2022. Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr73/nvsr73-02.pdf
Petrovskaya, N.E., 2022. Labor migration to the USA. Economics and Entrepreneurship, No 10(147). P. 61–70. DOI: 10.34925/EIP.2022.147.10.008 (in Russian).
Pew Research Center, 2020. The Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition of the U.S. Electorate. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/09/23/the-changing-racial-and-ethnic-composition-of-the-u-s-electorate/
Pew Research Center, 2024a. In Tight U.S. Presidential Race, Latino Voters’ Preferences Mirror 2020. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/09/24/in-tight-u-s-presidential-race-latino-voters-preferences-mirror-2020/
Pew Research Center, 2024b. Key facts about Hispanic eligible voters in 2024. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/10/key-facts-about-hispanic-eligible-voters-in-2024/
Sokolshchik, L.M., 2021. American conservatism and the challenge of contemporary populism: theoretical and ideological aspects. Polis. Political Studies, No 1. P. 78–93. Available at: https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2021.01.06 (in Russian).
Sokolshchik, L.M., Sakaev, V.T., Galimullin, E.Z., 2023. Illegal immigration from Latin America amid the 2024 presidential campaign: polarization effects. Journal of International Analytics, Vol.14, No 3. P. 106–126. Available at: https://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-3-106-126 (in Russian).
The New York Times, 2020. National Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
The Washington Post, 2024a. 2024 turnout is near the 2020 record. See how each state compares. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/06/voter-turnout-2024-by-state/
The Washington Post, 2024b. Exit polls from the 2024 presidential election. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/exit-polls-2024-election/
Travkina, N.M., 2018. USA: Changing Algorithm of Evolution. Moscow: Ves Mir Publishers (in Russian).
US Census Bureau, 2021. 2020 Census Illuminates Racial and Ethnic Composition of the Country. Available at: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/08/improved-race-ethnicity-measures-reveal-united-states-population-much-more-multiracial.html
US Census Bureau, 2022. Voting and registration in the election of November 2020. Available at: https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2022/demo/p20-585.html
US Census Bureau, 2023. 2023 National Population Projections Tables: Main Series. Available at: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2023/demo/popproj/2023-summary-tables.html
US Census Bureau, 2024a. Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2023. Available at: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/income-poverty-health-insurance-coverage.html
US Census Bureau, 2024b. New Estimates Highlight Differences in Growth Between the U.S. Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Populations. Available at: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/population-estimates-characteristics.html
US Census Bureau, 2024c. U.S. and World Population Clock. Available at: https://www.census.gov/popclock/
UlysMedia, 2024. US elections: will Kamala Harris be able to move into the White House. Available at: https://ulysmedia.kz/analitika/34822-vybory-v-ssha-smozhet-li-kamala-kharris-zaselitsia-v-belyi-dom/
Zabrodin, A., 2024. The undecided determine everything. Kommersant, March 16. Available at: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6577524 (in Russian).
1.jpg)
