Global and Russian Energy Outlook Up to 2050

Abstract

The article presents the main results of the ERI RAS scenario forecast for global and Russian energy sector development up to 2050. The considered scenarios are not normative, but descriptive—they show the world energy sector development under given assumptions.

The study provides forecasts for volume and composition of energy consumption by country and world regions by fuel by final consumption sectors, electricity consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions, energy production, world trade and fuel prices.

Against the background of slower economic growth (1.4-1.8 times compared to 1990-2021) and slower population growth (2 times), there will be a slowdown in growth of primary energy consumption (2.5-3 times) and electricity consumption (1.3-2.5 times) in all scenarios considered. The developing countries of Asia, which will have the highest per capita GDP growth rate in the forecast period, will provide the most significant growth in energy consumption.

The power sector is rapidly transforming, where the share of non-carbon fuels will increase to 57-70% by the end of the forecast period. Energy end-use sectors are gradually electrifying. The era of active inter-fuel competition in the transportation sector is beginning. Among fossil fuels, only gas will manage to show a relatively stable share in the world energy balance with growing consumption volumes, while the shares of coal and oil will decline. Global greenhouse gas emissions will peak in all scenarios considered in the middle of the forecast period. To a large extent, by 2050, the energy intensity of the world economy, unit emissions in energy sector, and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, including energy poverty, will be determined by the ability of states to coordinate their efforts and policies on trade barriers and technology transfer.

Increased use of variable renewables in electricity generation will lead to increased volatility in gas and coal prices and a greater need for electricity backup and storage systems. The Middle East, North America and the CIS will remain the world’s key oil and gas producers, together accounting for more than 70% of the world's oil and gas supply.