Threshold Features in the Historical Evolution of the U.S. Economy, or Whether Parallels between the 1930s-1940s Period and the Present Time Are Appropriate?

Abstract

Using historical analogies, this paper analyzes the situation of the American economy and society in the early 2020s. The situation is characterized by an unprecedented combination of the deepest economic crisis since the end of the World War II, caused by the coronavirus pandemic, and severe domestic political turmoil. The crisis has led to a discussion in American society about whether the country is likely to slide into a Civil War. The situation in the United States in the third decade of the 21st century is analyzed in terms of American society approaching a threshold period in its historical and economic evolution, which may mark a radical transformation in the functioning of all public spheres, from the technical and economic to the spiritual and value spheres. The “threshold” patterns and peculiarities of the development of the American economy and society are based on the jump-like nature of their future functioning, which can “throw” the United States into a fundamentally different qualitative dimension. In the past, the U.S. already crossed a similar kind of threshold between 1929 and 1945, which has also been analyzed in detail in order to establish an empirical analog for understanding the peculiarities of crossing the “second” threshold.