International Trade Under "Slowbalization": Latest Trends

Elena Sapir; Alexander Vasilchenko

doi:10.17323/2949-5776-2024-2-4-85-105

Elena Sapir P.G. Demidov Yaroslavl State University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2754-0985
Alexander Vasilchenko Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences; P.G. Demidov Yaroslavl State University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4904-1562

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17323/2949-5776-2024-2-4-85-105

Keywords: international trade, global value chains, slowbalization, vertical specialization, Industry 4.0, servitization

Abstract

This article presents the results of a comparative analysis of global trends in world trade after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, with special focus on the balance of macroregions in international trade, their self-sufficiency in the supply of intermediate goods, and the growing role of services in the transformation of the architecture of economic globalization at the current stage. The research methodology was based on quantitative indicators of trade openness, geographical concentration and participation in global value chains. As a result, it was found that since 2009, international trade openness has been declining in Asia, remaining at precrisis levels in North America and increasing in Europe, with Asia displacing Europe as the largest macroregion in terms of merchandise exports. Asia and North America strengthened the regional component of value chains during this period, while Europe increased its dependence on external intermediate supplies. It is found that international trade in services continued to grow in absolute and relative terms after 2009. China and India have been integrating into the “service” segments of value chains at a faster pace, strengthening their weight in relation to developed countries. It appears that the growth potential of international trade in services is far from being exhausted. It is this sector that could be the engine of the future wave of economic globalization.

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Author Biographies

Elena Sapir, P.G. Demidov Yaroslavl State University

Professor, Head of the Department of World Economy and Statistics

Alexander Vasilchenko, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences; P.G. Demidov Yaroslavl State University

junior researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences,

postgraduate student of the Department of World Economics and Statistics, P.G. Demidov Yaroslavl State University

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