Неосязаемые факторы финансовых кризисов. Часть 2
Аннотация
Во второй части работы рассматривается взаимодействие фундаментальных и неосязаемых источников финансовых кризисов на разных этапах их развития: зарождения, распространения внутри экономики и между странами, принятия антикризисных мер. В качестве одного из рассмотренных механизмов приводится ситуация с ценами на нефть: рост неопределенности экономической политики повышает неопределенность цен на нефть, что, в свою очередь оказывает негативное воздействие на ВВП нефтедобывающих стран, таких как Мексика или Россия.
Общие результаты используются для анализа механизмов крупнейших финансовых кризисов последних десятилетий, включая российские, а также Великой Депрессии. Показывается, что во всех случаях кризис становился результатом взаимодействия фундаментальных и неосязаемых факторов, к которым иногда добавлялись политические.
В заключение рассматривается макроэкономическая политика российского правительства и Центрального банка в ходе финансовых кризисов 1998, 2008–2009 и 2014–2015 гг., а также изменение этой политики по итогам каждого из кризисов. Перечисляются задачи, которые предстоит решить до потенциальных новых кризисов, и проблемы, требующие скорейшего реагирования, такие как резкий рост геополитической напряженности с начала 2022 года.
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